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Mortgage Outlook for the Week of April 9, 2012

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New European Solvency ConcernsLast week saw the the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the Non-Farm Payrolls report (otherwise known as the “jobs report”) with numbers that significantly disappointed the market. This helped exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, enabling them to make up much of the lost ground of the previous week.

Additionally, more European solvency doubts crept into the picture providing one more “what if” for market watchers to ponder while providing some additional downward pressure on mortgage rates.

The weak jobs report showed market watchers that previously strong employment numbers may actually be seasonal in nature, which would indicate that the economy may not be as healthy as previously thought. If this is the case and we continue to see under-performing data related to the economy released, this should exert downward pressure on mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates, Europe and the Week Ahead

We will see Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price index data being released later in the week. Both of these reports have the potential to move mortgage rates. Since these reports help measure inflation, if they show that inflation is strong, then this reduces the chances of future QE3 or a third round of quantitive easing. Expect upward pressure on mortgage rates if the market thinks that QE3 has become less likely.

Ben Bernanke is also speaking on Monday and Friday. He has the potential to move the market if any of his comments catch market watchers off guard, but this is very unlikely.

Finally, any new news out of Europe could move mortgage rates. Bad news will likely exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, with good news exerting upward pressure on rates.

Economic Calendar for Week of April 9, 2012

  • Monday – Ben Bernanke Speaks
  • Tuesday – n/a
  • Wednesday – Import and Export Prices, Beige Book
  • Thursday – Producer Price Index, Jobless Claims, International Trade,
  • Friday – Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, Ben Bernanke Speaks

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